Vanguard Predictive Planning with Advanced Analytics

Vanguard Predictive Planning with Advanced Analytics

Advanced analytics

Vanguard Advanced Analytics raises enterprise strategy and decision making to a whole new level. Powerful modeling and simulation tools, plus collaborative workflow design, bring expert capability to knowledge workers across the enterprise.

With Vanguard Advanced Analytics, you can do the following:

  • Assess competing courses of action.
  • Compare risk-reward scenarios.
  • Test ideas virtually.
  • Refine short-term forecasts with demand sensing technology that collects and analyzes live-streaming sales orders or POS data from any ERP or transaction system.

Vanguard Advanced Analytics applies an exhaustive range of time-series and model-based methods to not only capture and extrapolate historical patterns, but to simulate and compare innumerable outcomes from seemingly unprecedented events and circumstances. These can include product launches, proposed changes to business plans, or long-range capital and investment decisions with effects that will span an entire product life-cycle, or even generations of products.

What sets Vanguard apart

Enterprise-grade capability

Companies reach peak performance when sales, operations, and finance teams work together to forecast and plan their business. Vanguard’s Integrated Business Planning (IBP) and Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) capabilities help finance teams bring together forecasts and plans from other departments, reconcile gaps between plans, and build consensus.

Monte Carlo simulation

With Vanguard, you can simulate complex systems to model uncertainty and volatility and better manage business opportunity and risk. Vanguard reveals the full range of potential business outcomes and the probability of each with expected values for distinct courses of action. For example:

  • Incorporate multiple sources of uncertainty into your forecast model.
  • Run simulations 100 times faster than spreadsheet add-ins — 1,500 times faster with the grid computing option.
  • Automate sensitivity analysis.
  • Run reports with distribution graphs and statistics.
  • Utilize distribution gallery.
  • Automate distribution fitting using historical data.
  • User-defined distributions
  • Employ correlated inputs
  • Utilize an unlimited number of stochastic inputs.

New-product forecasting

In addition to Monte Carlo simulation, Vanguard Advanced Analytics can apply multiple advanced techniques to new-product forecasting, or combine various methods into a single forecast. This is achieved through:

  • Comparable forecasting: Applies the historical pattern of an established product to a new product. In Vanguard Predictive Planning, users can select comparable products by any attribute–product family, SKU code, region, etc.
  • Spread curve: Applies the pattern of a demand factor (e.g. seasonality, decay, life cycle, region) to a new-product forecast.
  • Supersession: Used when a new product is likely to cannibalize or replace an existing product or set of products.
  • Adoption modeling: Captures new-product launch effects and long-range product life cycle effects.

Long-range forecasting

Vanguard Predictive Planning complements its exhaustive range of time-series forecasting methods with model-based approaches that factor product life-cycle effects into long-range forecasts. Vanguard Predictive Planning’s model-based methods include:

  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Decision analysis
  • Stochastic optimization

Featured resources

White paper

Advanced Analytic Forecasting
 

Case study

Aurobindo saw a 99% increase in inventory utilization

White paper

Portfolio Review to Full S&OP with Cloud-Based Advanced Analytics

Joachim Schwarzkopf MBA, PhD

Senior Portfolio Manager, Novartis – Vaccines & Diagnostics

"We are making strategic decisions that have long-term impacts on our business. Without Vanguard, we would not have the visibility and analysis we need to make the right decisions."

 

Ana Rodriguez

Director, Enterprise Applications and Integrations

"Vanguard has enabled Skullcandy to be more automated and calculated with our Demand Planning. The usability and thorough on-boarding and configuration process offered by Vanguard enabled us to completely migrate from our historical software very quickly"

 

Brent Phillips

Director of Demand Planning at Traeger Grills

“Our team selected Vanguard Software because we believe they are the best solution for our current demand planning needs and future supply planning needs.”

 

Renee Thomas Jacobs

CEO, Buy Auto Parts

"From the first time we loaded our data into Vanguard, we've been happy with the results. Between heigtening our understanding of sales cycle curves, the immense flexibility and responsiveness of the platform, and providing a single view of all items and categories, we've had a very positive experience."

 

Jim Cafferty

Lead Evaluator for Winzer

“One vendor stood head and shoulders above the others through the process — Vanguard Software. Vanguard consistently worked harder and provided more tangible, high-quality data and answers to questions than any other competitor.”

Vijay Ramadoss

IT Technical & Management Expert

"Vanguard is really easy to use and allows you to quickly pull demand data to use to support the business. Vanguard’s staff is always willing to help out with any question/concern I have about the system/information. Vanguard’s onsite training was extremely beneficial to help learn the tricks of the tool."

Geoffrey Taylor

Logistics and Inventory Manager, AFT Pharmaceuticals

 

"We looked for a software which could deliver the necessary requirement for our business and allows for customization. Vanguard has that capability and proven to be a reliable software, with a good supporting team behind it."

Cameron Yee

Business Analytics Manager, Buy Auto Parts

 

"After reviewing five different forecast systems, Vanguard excelled in all our requirements. Vanguard has great visualization and interface tools to assist with Ad-hoc and strategic analysis. The ability to measure statistical forecast accuracy greatly adds merit to the competency of the system. What really sold us was the exceptional customer service support to maximize the full potential of the software."

David White

Business Intelligence Manager, Endeavour

 

"After the initial Pre Sales demonstrations to our prospects, the most common statement is not whether they wanted to go ahead, it is when should we start the trial."

Ewelina Piasecka

Demand Planning Manager, Sensata Technologies

 

"Vanguard brought massive, positive improvements to purchasing, confidence, and stock reduction. Their system helped us stabilize production. That saved us money, but it also enabled us to grow the business more sustainably. Instead of managing spikes in demand, we achieved much greater stability in production scheduling and fulfillment."

Curt Mason

Financial Analyst, Francesca's

 

"We use Vanguard to effectively create and distribute sales plans to our field leadership to help them manage their business units."

Dave Palew

Director of Supply Chain, Aurobindo Pharma USA

 

"At its core, Vanguard Forecast Server is a user-friendly forecast generator with powerful analytical tools and easy-to-read reports. As users become more adept with the system, their ability to manage and manipulate forecasts increases tremendously. The results are consistently more accurate forecasts, time and again, and better forecast accuracy leads directly to a better bottom line for our business."

Marcia Ferrill

Assistant Director, Planning and Development – Kansas Department of Transportation

 

"Vanguard's forecasting process makes us so much more effective as an agency, especially when every dollar really counts."

Patty Thompson

Sr. Accountant, SDOT

 

"South Dakota DOT had heard from another State DOT about how they forecast their cash, and because we had been looking for that type of system, we spoke with that agency and decided to inquire about getting a similar system tweaked to fit our needs."

Tim Oligmueller

Director of Business Intelligence, Keen Footwear

 

"The reason I chose Vanguard was the quality of the pre-sales support and assistance in setting up a proof of concept with our actual data. While functionality was similar between all the choices your team and immediate sales support are what closed the deal."

Chris Patterson

Demand Planning Manager, Natrol

 

"Vanguard is a premier forecasting tool for businesses of all sizes. The data flexibility, reporting tools, continuous support is why we chose Vanguard over other software solutions."

Carl Turner

Vice President of Supply Chain, Mayne Pharma

 

"Our company grew rapidly with the acquisition of a large number of products that more than doubled our sku (stock keeping units) base. We were implementing a robust Sales and Operations (S&OP) process and needed a tool to assist our team in forecasting demand. We evaluated multiple solutions and continued to return to Vanguard based on their solution and the quality of their design and support team. Since implementing Vanguard we have seen a substantial improvement in our forward looking forecast as measured by our Mean Absolute Percentage Error. We are confident we made the right selection in choosing Vanguard."

Technical features

 

Promotion planning

The ability to model and manage promotions (or integrate with third-party promotion tools) is a key differentiator of Vanguard Predictive Planning. With a robust set of techniques to model promotions, Vanguard Predictive Planning sets itself apart.

Master production scheduling

Vanguard Predictive Planning creates the optimal schedule for production based on rules and constraints.

S&OP workflows

Workflows are the backbones of every supply chain plan. Vanguard Predictive Plan includes advanced, easy-to-define and support workflows to enable planning and S&OP processes.

AI engine

Vanguard Predictive Planning leverages artificial intelligence in multiple aspects of the platform, including forecast method selection, demand prediction and pattern detection, and automation of tasks.

Demand profiles

Forecast automation and accuracy plus optimized inventory and operations increase profits and profitability by reducing stockouts, lost sales, emergency orders, and labor and customer acquisition costs.

Automatic detection

Vanguard Predictive Planning automatically detects and excludes outliers from the forecast.

Advanced workflows

Workflows are the backbones of every supply chain plan. Vanguard Predictive Planning offers users advanced, easy-to-define and support workflows to enable both planning and S&OP processes.

Exception-based planning

More mature supply chains manage by exception; Vanguard Predictive Planning enables extensive exception-based processes.

BI and dashboards

There is no need for a third-party BI solution. Vanguard Predictive Planning includes robust reporting and dashboard capabilities.

End-to-end planning

Vanguard Predictive Planning is an integrated business planning platform that provides organizations with true end-to-end planning and visibility.

Collaboration Hub

Vanguard Predictive Planning comes with an industry-leading collaboration portal, which enables organizations to never again have siloed planning or limitations to who can collaborate.

Machine learning

Vanguard Predictive Planning leverages machine learning algorithms as part of its artificial intelligence capabilities.

Demand sensing

Vanguard Predictive Planning includes proprietary forecasting methods for near real-time forecasts.

Real-time analytics

With a unified data model, Vanguard Predictive Planning delivers analytics in real-time as soon as any changes occur to the plan or data. Additionally, users can set alerts to be notified of such changes.

In memory what-if analysis

With support for millions of SKUs, Vanguard users can forecast instantly for any number of products and scenarios. Vanguard’s in-memory database (UHIO) enables lightning fast calculations so users do not have any downtime.

Simulation

Move past single-threaded what-if scenario planning to true simulation. Monte Carlo simulation lets you instantly run hundreds or thousands of scenarios with a range of variables.

Monte Carlo simulation

Plan based on probabilities and improve forecast confidence intervals using Monte Carlo simulation.

Market-leading statistical forecasting

Part of the value supply chain planning software brings to organizations is a library of forecasting methods. Vanguard Predictive Planning is the most robust on the market, providing users with the most accurate results.

Financial forecasts

While some solutions can “dollarize” plans, Vanguard Predictive Planning creates financial forecasts including cashflow, net income, and various financial reports out-of-the-box.

Top-down, bottom-up, and middle-out forecasting

Regardless of how your organization generates forecasts, Vanguard Predictive Planning supports it all. Vanguard also supports any combination of SKU-location, SKU-warehouse, customer, and more.

Collaborative forecasting

Collaborative planning and forecasting enhances supply chain integration. Vanguard Predictive Planning maximizes the collaboration potential for teams to exchange information internally and externally.

What-if scenarios

Complete support for unlimited what-if scenarios that you can save and share. Additionally, non-forecast owners can propose forecast changes for any scenario.

Causal forecasting

Organizations should try to determine the leading indicators that impact demand for their products. Vanguard Predictive Planning fully supports this analysis and forecasting technique.

Segmentation

Vanguard Predictive Planning supports a wide array of SKU segmentation methods including, but not limited to, ABC, speed, cost, or service levels.

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