Risk Analysis

Vanguard System™ Risk Analysis

Will our product launch gain traction? Will our project run over budget? Will our key supplier fail to deliver on time? These are existential business risks that Vanguard System™ helps you understand and plan for using comprehensive, quantitative risk analysis. Global industry leaders rely on our software for one-off risk-analyses and for corporate-risk management and strategy.

    Traditional Risk Analysis

    Pockets of risk form in every area of business, each with the potential to spread throughout the organization. The interactions and trajectories of these risk pockets are so complex as to baffle individual comprehension. As a result, management teams have traditionally supplanted comprehensive analyses with crude forms such as street-light indicators, point estimates (single scenario), and limited-range estimates (best- and worst-case scenarios).

    Knowledge-Driven Risk Analysis

    Vanguard offers an alternative: the first risk-analysis software to fully integrate live, migrating data with organizational knowledge and insight. Capture knowledge from within using a sophisticated yet intuitive interface. Leverage intel with expert-system technology and advanced-analytic methods. Elucidate decision risks and invest with greater confidence.

    Predictive, Prescriptive

    Vanguard advanced-analytic methods for risk assessment and management:

    Monte Carlo simulation: Capture uncertainty to simulate complex systems. Reveal the probability, as well as the magnitude of potential outcomes. Perform sensitivity analysis to reveal assumptions that drive outcomes the most.
    Decision Tree Analysis: Leverage visual and analytic decision support to map the best course of action amid uncertainty.
    Optimization: Find the optimal solution available within given business constraints.

    Lightening Fast
    Learn how Vanguard’s Grid Computing is 1,500 times the speed of spreadsheets.
    Grid Computing

    Knowledge Capture to Value Creation

    Key knowledge experts are spread throughout the organization. Why then do we rely on individual modelers with second-hand knowledge. Effective cost modeling demands that we tap the right experts directly, engage them in collaborative processes, and provide them with the tools and resources to build libraries of reusable intelligence. Vanguard System delivers on these values with automated precision, threading together myriad component models, currencies, time scales and update schedules to synthesize knowledge bases that are seamless, active and ever expanding.

    Quantify Impacts

    Quantify financial and operational impacts across the organization using various modeling and simulation methods. Replace point estimates with fuzzy values that reflect uncertainty and help assess the probability of potential outcomes, as well as their range and magnitude. Interpret and apply management estimates, assumptions and uncertainties when historical data is scarce. Simulate thousands of real-world scenarios simultaneously to reveal risks and opportunities. Run your own what-if scenarios. Or, let Vanguard home in on potential outcomes and risk-mitigation strategies.

    Featured resources

    White paper

    Advanced Analytic Forecasting
     

    Case study

    Aurobindo saw a 99% increase in inventory utilization

    White paper

    Portfolio Review to Full S&OP with Cloud-Based Advanced Analytics

    Results

    “Billions [of dollars] in operating margin and trillions in market capitalization separate supply chain winners from losers,” according to AMR Research.


    Best-in-class planners see:

    %

    reduction in inventory

    %

    stronger perfect order fulfillment

    %

    shorter cash to cash cycle times

    %

    fewer stockouts than competitors

    Customer testimonials

    Joachim Schwarzkopf MBA, PhD

    Senior Portfolio Manager, Novartis – Vaccines & Diagnostics

    "We are making strategic decisions that have long-term impacts on our business. Without Vanguard, we would not have the visibility and analysis we need to make the right decisions."

     

    Jim Cafferty

    Lead Evaluator for Winzer

    “One vendor stood head and shoulders above the others through the process — Vanguard Software. Vanguard consistently worked harder and provided more tangible, high-quality data and answers to questions than any other competitor.”

    Vijay Ramadoss

    IT Technical & Management Expert

    "Vanguard is really easy to use and allows you to quickly pull demand data to use to support the business. Vanguard’s staff is always willing to help out with any question/concern I have about the system/information. Vanguard’s onsite training was extremely beneficial to help learn the tricks of the tool."

    Vijay Rama

    Geoffrey Taylor

    Logistics and Inventory Manager, AFT Pharmaceuticals

     

    "We looked for a software which could deliver the necessary requirement for our business and allows for customization. Vanguard has that capability and proven to be a reliable software, with a good supporting team behind it."

    Cameron Yee

    Business Analytics Manager, Buy Auto Parts

     

    "After reviewing five different forecast systems, Vanguard excelled in all our requirements. Vanguard has great visualization and interface tools to assist with Ad-hoc and strategic analysis. The ability to measure statistical forecast accuracy greatly adds merit to the competency of the system. What really sold us was the exceptional customer service support to maximize the full potential of the software."

    David White

    Business Intelligence Manager, Endeavour

     

    "After the initial Pre Sales demonstrations to our prospects, the most common statement is not whether they wanted to go ahead, it is when should we start the trial."

    Ewelina Piasecka

    Demand Planning Manager, Sensata Technologies

     

    "Vanguard brought massive, positive improvements to purchasing, confidence, and stock reduction. Their system helped us stabilize production. That saved us money, but it also enabled us to grow the business more sustainably. Instead of managing spikes in demand, we achieved much greater stability in production scheduling and fulfillment."

    Curt Mason

    Financial Analyst, Francesca's

     

    "We use Vanguard to effectively create and distribute sales plans to our field leadership to help them manage their business units."

    Dave Palew

    Director of Supply Chain, Aurobindo Pharma USA

     

    "At its core, Vanguard Forecast Server is a user-friendly forecast generator with powerful analytical tools and easy-to-read reports. As users become more adept with the system, their ability to manage and manipulate forecasts increases tremendously. The results are consistently more accurate forecasts, time and again, and better forecast accuracy leads directly to a better bottom line for our business."

    Marcia Ferrill

    Assistant Director, Planning and Development – Kansas Department of Transportation

     

    "Vanguard's forecasting process makes us so much more effective as an agency, especially when every dollar really counts."

    Patty Thompson

    Sr. Accountant, SDOT

     

    "South Dakota DOT had heard from another State DOT about how they forecast their cash, and because we had been looking for that type of system, we spoke with that agency and decided to inquire about getting a similar system tweaked to fit our needs."

    Tim Oligmueller

    Director of Business Intelligence, Keen Footwear

     

    "The reason I chose Vanguard was the quality of the pre-sales support and assistance in setting up a proof of concept with our actual data. While functionality was similar between all the choices your team and immediate sales support are what closed the deal."

    Chris Patterson

    Demand Planning Manager, Natrol

     

    "Vanguard is a premier forecasting tool for businesses of all sizes. The data flexibility, reporting tools, continuous support is why we chose Vanguard over other software solutions."

    Carl Turner

    Vice President of Supply Chain, Mayne Pharma

     

    "Our company grew rapidly with the acquisition of a large number of products that more than doubled our sku (stock keeping units) base. We were implementing a robust Sales and Operations (S&OP) process and needed a tool to assist our team in forecasting demand. We evaluated multiple solutions and continued to return to Vanguard based on their solution and the quality of their design and support team. Since implementing Vanguard we have seen a substantial improvement in our forward looking forecast as measured by our Mean Absolute Percentage Error. We are confident we made the right selection in choosing Vanguard."

    Technical features

     

    Collaboration

    Multiple, simultaneous contributors. More complete analyses. Collective knowledge that contextualizes historical data, sharpens assumptions and drives accuracy.

    Roll up/ Drill Down

    View the enterprise as a whole or zero in on specific areas of business for micro detail.

    Scale

    Capacity for the largest and most complex enterprise planning and analysis endeavors.

    Reporting

    Turn models into interactive web reports in a few clicks. Fully exercise models in real time.

    Transparency

    Models display graphically and with plain English formulas. Easy to communicate, understand, review comment on.

    Integration

    Check yes next to existing business systems — databases, enterprise applications, spreadsheets.

    Recycling

    Scan your model library for useful sequences to add in, link to or build out.

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