Vanguard System™ Risk Analysis
Will our product launch gain traction? Will our project run over budget? Will our key supplier
Traditional Risk Analysis
Pockets of risk form in every area of business, each with the potential to spread throughout the organization. The interactions and trajectories of these risk pockets are so complex as to baffle individual comprehension. As a result, management teams have traditionally supplanted comprehensive analyses with crude forms such as street-light indicators, point estimates (single scenario), and limited-range estimates (best- and worst-case scenarios).
Knowledge-Driven Risk Analysis
Vanguard offers an alternative: the first risk-analysis software to fully integrate
Monte Carlo simulation: Capture uncertainty to simulate complex systems. Reveal the probability, as well as the magnitude of potential outcomes. Perform sensitivity analysis to reveal assumptions that drive outcomes the most.
Decision Tree Analysis: Leverage visual and analytic decision support to map the best course of action amid uncertainty.
Optimization: Find the optimal solution available within given business constraints.
Learn how Vanguard’s Grid Computing is 1,500 times the speed of spreadsheets.
Knowledge Capture to Value Creation
Key knowledge experts are spread throughout the organization. Why then do we rely on individual modelers with second-hand
Quantify financial and operational impacts across the organization using various modeling and simulation methods. Replace point estimates with fuzzy values that reflect uncertainty and help assess the probability of potential outcomes, as well as their range and magnitude. Interpret and apply management estimates, assumptions and uncertainties when historical data is scarce. Simulate thousands of real-world scenarios simultaneously to reveal risks and opportunities. Run your own what-if scenarios. Or, let Vanguard home in on potential outcomes and risk-mitigation strategies.
“Billions [of dollars] in operating margin and trillions in market capitalization separate supply chain winners from losers,” according to AMR Research. With Vanguard Predictive Planning™, best-in-class planners see:
Reduction in inventory
Increase in perfect-order fulfillment (complete, accurate, and on time)
Shorter cash-to-cash cycle times
Fewer stock-outs than competitors
What our clients have to say
Senior Portfolio Manager, Novartis – Vaccines & Diagnostics
"We are making strategic decisions that have long-term impacts on our business. Without Vanguard, we would not have the visibility and analysis we need to make the right decisions."
Director, Enterprise Applications and Integrations
"Vanguard has enabled Skullcandy to be more automated and calculated with our Demand Planning. The usability and thorough on-boarding and configuration process offered by Vanguard enabled us to completely migrate from our historical software very quickly"
Director of Demand Planning at Traeger Grills
“Our team selected Vanguard Software because we believe they are the best solution for our current demand planning needs and future supply planning needs.”
CEO, Buy Auto Parts
"From the first time we loaded our data into Vanguard, we've been happy with the results. Between heightening our understanding of sales cycle curves, the immense flexibility, and responsiveness of the platform, and providing a single view of all items and categories, we've had a very positive experience."
Lead Evaluator for Winzer
“One vendor stood head and shoulders above the others through the process — Vanguard Software. Vanguard consistently worked harder and provided more tangible, high-quality data and answers to questions than any other competitor.”
IT Technical & Management Expert
"Vanguard is really easy to use and allows you to quickly pull demand data to use to support the business. Vanguard’s staff is always willing to help out with any question/concern I have about the system/information. Vanguard’s onsite training was extremely beneficial to help learn the tricks of the tool."
Logistics and Inventory Manager, AFT Pharmaceuticals
"We looked for a software which could deliver the necessary requirement for our business and allows for customization. Vanguard has that capability and proven to be a reliable software, with a good supporting team behind it."
Business Analytics Manager, Buy Auto Parts
"After reviewing five different forecast systems, Vanguard excelled in all our requirements. Vanguard has great visualization and interface tools to assist with Ad-hoc and strategic analysis. The ability to measure statistical forecast accuracy greatly adds merit to the competency of the system. What really sold us was the exceptional customer service support to maximize the full potential of the software."
Business Intelligence Manager, Endeavour
"After the initial Pre Sales demonstrations to our prospects, the most common statement is not whether they wanted to go ahead, it is when should we start the trial."
Demand Planning Manager, Sensata Technologies
"Vanguard brought massive, positive improvements to purchasing, confidence, and stock reduction. Their system helped us stabilize production. That saved us money, but it also enabled us to grow the business more sustainably. Instead of managing spikes in demand, we achieved much greater stability in production scheduling and fulfillment."
Financial Analyst, Francesca's
"We use Vanguard to effectively create and distribute sales plans to our field leadership to help them manage their business units."
Director of Supply Chain, Aurobindo Pharma USA
"At its core, Vanguard Forecast Server is a user-friendly forecast generator with powerful analytical tools and easy-to-read reports. As users become more adept with the system, their ability to manage and manipulate forecasts increases tremendously. The results are consistently more accurate forecasts, time and again, and better forecast accuracy leads directly to a better bottom line for our business."
Assistant Director, Planning and Development – Kansas Department of Transportation
"Vanguard's forecasting process makes us so much more effective as an agency, especially when every dollar really counts."
Sr. Accountant, SDOT
"South Dakota DOT had heard from another State DOT about how they forecast their cash, and because we had been looking for that type of system, we spoke with that agency and decided to inquire about getting a similar system tweaked to fit our needs."
Director of Business Intelligence, Keen Footwear
"The reason I chose Vanguard was the quality of the pre-sales support and assistance in setting up a proof of concept with our actual data. While functionality was similar between all the choices your team and immediate sales support are what closed the deal."
Demand Planning Manager, Natrol
"Vanguard is a premier forecasting tool for businesses of all sizes. The data flexibility, reporting tools, continuous support is why we chose Vanguard over other software solutions."
Vice President of Supply Chain, Mayne Pharma
"Our company grew rapidly with the acquisition of a large number of products that more than doubled our SKU (stock-keeping units) base. We were implementing a robust Sales and Operations (S&OP) process and needed a tool to assist our team in forecasting demand. We evaluated multiple solutions and continued to return to Vanguard based on their solution and the quality of their design and support team. Since implementing Vanguard we have seen a substantial improvement in our forward-looking forecast as measured by our Mean Absolute Percentage Error. We are confident we made the right selection in choosing Vanguard."
Multiple, simultaneous contributors. More complete analyses. Collective knowledge that contextualizes historical data, sharpens assumptions and drives accuracy.
Roll up/ Drill Down
View the enterprise as a whole or zero in on specific areas of business for micro detail.
Capacity for the largest and most complex enterprise planning and analysis endeavors.
Turn models into interactive web reports in a few clicks. Fully exercise models in real time.
Models display graphically and with plain English formulas. Easy to communicate, understand, review comment on.
Check yes next to existing business systems — databases, enterprise applications, spreadsheets.
Scan your model library for useful sequences to add in, link to or build out.
Meet a few of our clients
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