Risk Analysis

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Vanguard System™ Risk Analysis

Will our product launch gain traction? Will our project run over budget? Will our key supplier fail to deliver on time? These are existential business risks that Vanguard System™ helps you understand and plan for using comprehensive, quantitative risk analysis. Global industry leaders rely on our software for one-off risk-analyses and for corporate-risk management and strategy.

Traditional Risk Analysis

Pockets of risk form in every area of business, each with the potential to spread throughout the organization. The interactions and trajectories of these risk pockets are so complex as to baffle individual comprehension. As a result, management teams have traditionally supplanted comprehensive analyses with crude forms such as street-light indicators, point estimates (single scenario), and limited-range estimates (best- and worst-case scenarios).

Knowledge-Driven Risk Analysis

Vanguard offers an alternative: the first risk-analysis software to fully integrate live, migrating data with organizational knowledge and insight. Capture knowledge from within using a sophisticated yet intuitive interface. Leverage intel with expert-system technology and advanced-analytic methods. Elucidate decision risks and invest with greater confidence.

Predictive, Prescriptive

Vanguard advanced-analytic methods for risk assessment and management:

Monte Carlo simulation: Capture uncertainty to simulate complex systems. Reveal the probability, as well as the magnitude of potential outcomes. Perform sensitivity analysis to reveal assumptions that drive outcomes the most.
Decision Tree Analysis: Leverage visual and analytic decision support to map the best course of action amid uncertainty.
Optimization: Find the optimal solution available within given business constraints.

Lightning Fast
Learn how Vanguard’s Grid Computing is 1,500 times the speed of spreadsheets.
Grid Computing

Knowledge Capture to Value Creation

Key knowledge experts are spread throughout the organization. Why then do we rely on individual modelers with second-hand knowledge. Effective cost modeling demands that we tap the right experts directly, engage them in collaborative processes, and provide them with the tools and resources to build libraries of reusable intelligence. Vanguard System delivers on these values with automated precision, threading together myriad component models, currencies, time scales and update schedules to synthesize knowledge bases that are seamless, active and ever expanding.

Quantify Impacts

Quantify financial and operational impacts across the organization using various modeling and simulation methods. Replace point estimates with fuzzy values that reflect uncertainty and help assess the probability of potential outcomes, as well as their range and magnitude. Interpret and apply management estimates, assumptions and uncertainties when historical data is scarce. Simulate thousands of real-world scenarios simultaneously to reveal risks and opportunities. Run your own what-if scenarios. Or, let Vanguard home in on potential outcomes and risk-mitigation strategies.

Client Results

“Billions [of dollars] in operating margin and trillions in market capitalization separate supply chain winners from losers,” according to AMR Research. With Vanguard Predictive Planning™, best-in-class planners see:

15%

Reduction in inventory

17%

Increase in perfect-order fulfillment (complete, accurate, and on time)

35%

Shorter cash-to-cash cycle times

90%

Fewer stock-outs than competitors