In a scheduled address, Lewis will discuss uncertainty in forecasts and plans, and how modeling and simulation can improve decisions and outcomes.
Lewis will explain how with the right tools and techniques, uncertainty analysis can be a critical driver of business success. He will also shed light on why many organizations fail to incorporate uncertainty into their forecasting and planning processes, as well as the pitfalls of using simplistic, low-medium-high forecast scenarios.
Additionally, Lewis will focus on how to estimate and model uncertainty to improve various types of forecasts and plans, and how to present uncertainty analysis to management teams without losing them in the details.
Attendees will learn:
- Why you and your organization should incorporate uncertainty into your forecasting and planning processes
- The role of uncertainty estimation, modeling (including Monte Carlo simulation), and analysis in these processes
- How uncertainty factors into short-term operational planning vs. long-term strategic planning
- How to present uncertainty analysis to management teams
- Real-world examples from Demand Planning; Maintenance, Repair, & Operations (MRO) Planning; and Financial Planning
About Brian Lewis, Ph.D.
Brian is EVP at Vanguard Software, which delivers advanced-analytic forecasting and optimization capabilities worldwide through a single, cloud platform for IBP, S&OP, supply chain, and finance. Brian has more than 10 years of experience in business forecasting and planning, supply chain management, and advanced analytics. He previously held positions at Ford Motor Company, UPS, and Providian Financial. Brian has a Ph.D. in operations research and supply chain analytics from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
About Vanguard Software
Vanguard Software introduced its first product for decision support analysis in 1995. Today, companies across every major industry and more than 60 countries rely on Vanguard Software’s Integrated Business Planning (IBP), forecasting, and advanced analytic cloud platform. Vanguard Software is based in Cary, North Carolina.