Risk Analysis

The business world is filled with uncertainty. Will a new product launch be successful? Will a project go off schedule and over budget? Will a key supplier fail to deliver materials on time? The Vanguard System™ helps businesses understand and plan for uncertainty using a comprehensive quantitative risk analysis approach.

A History of Simplistic Analysis

Risk analysis is a complex process. There are countless sources of risk in every area of a business and each spawns ripple effects throughout the enterprise. These interactions are far too complex for any one individual to fully understand. Historically, many companies have been forced to accept simplistic forms of risk analysis such as "street light" indicators (red, yellow, green), point estimates (representing a single scenario), or limited range estimates (Best- and Worst-case scenarios).

The Analysis You Really Need

Vanguard offers an alternative: the analysis you really need! Vanguard is the first risk analysis solution that gives you complete visibility and insight into your business. Due to its sophisticated yet simple interface, Vanguard enables you to capture expert knowledge from within your company and apply it to your risk analyses. Leveraging your existing company knowledge with our unique combination of Expert System technology and advanced analytical methods gives you the power to facedown risky decisions and grow your business more confidently.

Use Vanguard for individual risk analysis projects and as a core component of corporate risk management strategies.

Vanguard can automatically identify which risks
are most important to your company.

Enterprise Knowledge Capture

The knowledge your business needs to build comprehensive risk models lies with expert employees who are spread through out organization. With Vanguard, you no longer need to rely on the analysis of a single modeler with second-hand knowledge. Instead, Vanguard enables you to directly involve key experts in a collaborative modeling process to create a collective intelligence that is unachievable any other way. This collective intelligence is captured as component models in a reusable knowledge-base, or model library, that grows through continued use.

What's more, Vanguard automatically handles all of the intricate complexities of combining models when they are built by people in different countries using different currencies, different time scales, and different update schedules.

Fully-Quantified Impacts

Vanguard applies a variety of modeling and simulation methods to your risk models to fully quantify the financial and operational impacts at all levels of an enterprise. You can replace point estimates with fuzzy values that reflect your uncertainty. This helps you assess the range and likelihood of potential outcomes. Even when historical data is scarce, Vanguard knows how to interpret your management estimates, assumptions, and uncertainties.

Simulating thousands of real-world scenarios at the same time, Vanguard identifies your most important risks and opportunities. You can try your own what-if scenarios or let Vanguard show you where to focus your attention, how to optimize your resources, and which risk mitigation strategies to prepare.

Use Time-based projection simulations to illustrate
the effects of uncertainty over time.

Benefits / Features

• Collaboration: Many individuals simultaneously contribute to an analysis effort. Like building blocks, easily combine their knowledge, assumptions, and historical data into risk models.
• Roll up / Drill down: Roll-up your analysis to see the effects on the enterprise as a whole, or drill down into specific areas of the business for greater detail and understanding.
• Instant Web reports: With a few clicks, Vanguard turns models into interactive Web reports. Access your models anytime from anywhere, fully exercise the models in real time, and distribute your results to everyone who needs them.
• Open and transparent: Models are displayed graphically and use plain English formulas, making them easy to communicate to colleagues, management, or clients. Anyone can quickly review assumptions, gain insight into your results, and provide feedback.
• Reusable model library: You do not have to re-invent the wheel with each new planning and analysis effort. Simply search your model library to find similar or related models that you can update, link to, or specialize.
• Easy integration: Vanguard integrates directly with your existing business systems such as databases, enterprise applications, and even spreadsheets.
• More...