Monte Carlo Simulation Software
If you are using Monte Carlo simulation in your
modeling efforts, you are among a rare group of
individuals who demand sophisticated models. Do your
tools reflect the same level of sophistication? The
Vanguard System is a modeling and simulation platform
designed for professionals like you.
Programming, Excel, or Vanguard
In building Monte Carlo simulation models, you have
three basic options:
- build your models from scratch using a
programming language such as C or Pascal;
- use a spreadsheet with a Monte Carlo simulation
add-in; or
- use Vanguard.
Building your models from scratch allows you to create
high-performance models, but the development cost can be
prohibitive and the resulting models are difficult to
update. Using a spreadsheet makes building models easier,
but performance is limited.
Vanguard offers the best of both worlds. It is as easy
to use as a spreadsheet, but can handle models hundreds
of times as large and run simulations thousands
of times as fast. What's more, Vanguard provides
a structured modeling environment that makes it possible
for many people to collaborate on large modeling efforts.
Vanguard's combination of speed, capacity,
and accuracy make it unmatched in its
ability to handle enterprise-scale models.
Simulation Speed
A single computer running Vanguard can perform a Monte
Carlo simulation 10 to 100 times as fast as Excel. This
performance is on par with custom programmed models.
However, we didn't stop there. Vanguard also supports Grid
Computing, which allows you to use a network of
computers to perform simulations thousands of times
faster than a spreadsheet. Setting up a computer grid is
as simple as permissioning Vanguard to use spare CPU
cycles on your colleagues computers. This gives each
individual in your workgroup supercomputing power without
a supercomputing budget.
Model Capacity
Imagine you could link together all of the individual
spreadsheet models you have built in the past to create
an enterprise model. This would allow you to understand
how risks in one project area can be affected by other
projects; or, to anticipate problems caused when
different projects compete for the same resources. Portfolio
modeling requires a level of capacity that is
not present in spreadsheets and it requires an
architecture that allows you to link together models
built by different people using different time frames,
different currencies, different units of measure, etc.
Vanguard makes this possible through its component-based,
collaborative modeling infrastructure.
With Vanguard, the complexity of
your models scales linearly with model size. This makes
portfolio modeling and optimization possible.
Model Accuracy
A model is useful only if it is free of errors. This
becomes increasingly difficult as models grow in size.
Vanguard uses hierarchy, object-oriented
design principals, and a visual model
layout to help you build large-scale models
without errors.
Studio's graphical interface makes
a model's function easy to understand.
Monte Carlo Simulation Software Comparisons
Vanguard offers three products for Monte Carlo
simulation:
The following sections will help you decide which
product best fits your needs. Refer to the Product Comparison
Chart for a quick overview of each product's
capabilities.
Strategic Forecasting Suite
The Strategic Forecasting Suite is ideal for building
forecast-oriented business models. These forecasts can be
based on historical data, using Vanguard's time-series
forecasting abilities, or can be
simulation-based, which is ideal in cases where you have
limited or no historical data. The Strategic Forecasting
Suite is used in projects such as planning a new product
development, choosing the appropriate marketing plan, or
understanding the risks your business faces.
For more details, refer to the Strategic
Forecasting Suite product page.
Business Analytics Suite
The Business Analytics Suite includes all of
the capabilities of the Operational and Strategic
Forecasting Suites, plus the ability to perform decision
tree analysis and business optimizations.
This product is designed for professional modelers who
need the highest level of functionality.
Once you have generated a good prediction model, the
next step in business planning is to use the model to
test alternative plans in the search for the optimal
plan. The Business Analytics Suite includes a very
powerful optimizer that can automatically find the
optimal business strategy for you.
Vanguard's Stochastic Optimizer can solve any
optimization problem. There are no requirements regarding
linearity, discontinuities, or other model
characteristics that limit virtually all other
optimization tools. The Stochastic Optimizer even
supports Grid-based computing, making it possible to
solve massive problems using spare CPU time on your
colleagues' desktop computers.
For more details, refer to the Business
Analytics Suite product page.
Vanguard System
Each of the products above is deployed as a
single-user desktop application. The Vanguard System
supports all of the capabilities of both the
products above, but is deployed as a Web-based,
client server application that supports many users. The
server-based delivery makes it possible to collaborate
on large modeling projects and it lets you link your
models to internal applications.
For more details, refer to the Vanguard System
product page.
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