Forecasting

Forecasting is an essential part of business planning and broadly describes a wide range of activities occurring throughout an organization:

• Marketing and Sales: Setting sales goals and planning promotions.
• Finance: Analyzing future Profit & Loss (P&L) and Balance Sheet performance.
• Operations: Planning manufacturing capacity, production schedules, and resource allocations.
• Human resources: Understanding staffing needs.
• Product development: Estimating life cycle costs of future products.
• Project management: Predicting the risks of budget overruns.

The Vanguard System™ is a comprehensive business solution for improving the quality, reliability, and speed of forecasting activities throughout your organization. Not only is Vanguard's forecasting tool the most accurate available, it also makes the process of creating forecasts easy. Vanguard's sophisticated yet simple interface enables you to capture expert knowledge from within your company and apply it to your forecasts. Leveraging our unique combination of Expert System technology and advanced analytical methods with your existing company knowledge gives you the power to grow faster and face the future confidently.

Unified Forecasting Analytics

Whether you have data warehouses full of historical data or only your best management estimates, Vanguard helps you produce the highest quality forecasts possible using Wizard-style guides and easy-to-assemble models.

Unlike most forecasting tools on the market, Vanguard combines all three proven forecasting methods into a unified solution with individual-item and batch forecast modes.

• Time-series forecasts: Supports 21 different algorithms to extrapolate trends and patterns from your historical data.
• Monte Carlo simulation: Evaluates thousands of scenarios based on your assumptions when historical data is scarce.
• Statistical regression: Automatically finds the relationships between multiple inputs and your business outcomes.

Vanguard gives you the power to forecast anything you need - from traditional product demand to finding the likelihood that a marketing campaign will increase customer leads by 25%. With a unified forecasting solution like Vanguard, there are no limits.

In addition, you can evaluate special scenarios using Vanguard's what-if analysis which shows you which factors impact your forecasts the most. Vanguard walks you through each step in the forecasting process using Wizard-style guides. However, for more programmatic control, you also can manually access Vanguard's forecasting engine.

Collaborative Forecasting

The knowledge your business needs to build comprehensive forecast models is divided between individuals who are spread throughout your organization. Vanguard frees you from having to rely on the analysis of a single modeler with second-hand knowledge. Instead, Vanguard directly involves key individuals in a collaborative modeling process to create a collective intelligence that is unachievable any other way. Vanguard captures this collective intelligence as component models in a reusable knowledge-base, or model library, that grows through continued use.

The intricate complexities of aggregating all your component models when they are built by people in different countries using different currencies, different time scales, different update schedules, etc., are all handled automatically by Vanguard.

Beyond the Forecast

Vanguard lets you go beyond the forecast itself. Forecasts are always inputs to some other decision-making process within an organization; so, Vanguard lets you dynamically link your forecasts to these processes. For example, Manufacturing can directly link to product demand forecasts from Marketing and Sales and use them in real-time to optimally schedule production as part of a Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) activity.

Getting Stakeholder Buy-In

Getting stakeholder buy-in for your forecasts can be a difficult and cumbersome process. However using Vanguard's intuitive and interactive Web reports, stakeholders can review assumptions, explore the forecasts, give feedback, and even perform their own what-if analysis. Engaged stakeholders, who directly contribute to a planning and analysis process, are more likely to feel informed, confident, and willing to give their support.

Benefits / Features

• Collaboration: Many individuals simultaneously contribute to a planning effort. Like building blocks, easily combine their knowledge, assumptions, and historical data into complete forecast models. Then dynamically link the forecasts to decision-making processes in other areas of the business.
• Easy-to-use templates: Build intuitive forecast templates that can be updated locally or over the Web. Ensure consistent forecasts across your organization.
• Real-time results: Rest assured you always have the latest results. Vanguard automatically updates your models as changes are made in any component.
• Go beyond data: When historical data is scarce, Vanguard knows how to interpret your management estimates, assumptions, and uncertainties.
• Instant Web reports: With a few clicks, Vanguard turns models into interactive Web reports. Access your models anytime from anywhere, fully exercise the models in real time and distribute your results to everyone who needs them.
• Easy integration: Vanguard integrates directly with your existing business systems such as databases, enterprise applications, and even spreadsheets.
• More...