Use Vanguard for individual risk analysis projects and
as a core component of corporate risk management
Vanguard can automatically identify
are most important to your company.
The business world is filled with uncertainty. Will a
new product launch be successful? Will a project go off
schedule and over budget? Will a key supplier fail to
deliver materials on time? The Vanguard System™
helps businesses understand and plan for uncertainty
using a comprehensive quantitative risk analysis
approach. Vanguard's risk analysis software will help you
identify the sources of business risk and plan corrective
A History of Simplistic Analysis
Risk analysis is a complex process. There are
countless sources of risk in every area of a business and
each spawns ripple effects throughout the enterprise.
These interactions are far too complex for any one
individual to understand fully. Historically, many
companies have been forced to accept simplistic forms of
risk analysis such as "street light" indicators
(red, yellow, green), point estimates (representing a
single scenario), or limited range estimates (Best- and
The Analysis You Really Need
Vanguard offers an alternative: the analysis you
really need! Vanguard is the first risk analysis software
to give you complete visibility and insight into your
business. Due to its sophisticated yet simple interface,
Vanguard enables you to capture expert knowledge from
within your company and apply it to your risk analyses.
Leveraging your existing company knowledge with our
unique combination of Expert System technology and
advanced analytical methods gives you the power to
facedown risky decisions and grow your business more
Enterprise Knowledge Capture
The knowledge your business needs to build
comprehensive risk models lies with expert employees who
are spread through out organization. With Vanguard, you
no longer need to rely on the analysis of a single
modeler with second-hand knowledge. Instead, Vanguard
enables you to directly involve key experts in a
collaborative modeling process to create a collective
intelligence that is unachievable any other way. This
collective intelligence is captured as component models
in a reusable knowledge base, or model library, that
grows through continued use.
What's more, Vanguard automatically handles all of the
intricate complexities of combining models when they are
built by people in different countries using different
currencies, different time scales, and different update
Vanguard applies a variety of modeling and simulation
methods to your risk models to quantify the financial and
operational impacts at all levels of an enterprise. You
can replace point estimates with fuzzy values
that reflect your uncertainty. This helps you assess the
range and likelihood of potential outcomes. Even when
historical data is scarce, Vanguard knows how to
interpret your management estimates, assumptions, and
Simulating thousands of real-world scenarios at the
same time, Vanguard identifies your most important risks
and opportunities. You can try your own what-if
scenarios or let Vanguard show you where to focus your
attention, how to optimize your resources, and which risk
mitigation strategies to prepare.
Use Time-based projection
simulations to illustrate
the effects of uncertainty over time.
Benefits / Features
- Collaboration: Many individuals
simultaneously contribute to an analysis effort.
Like building blocks, easily combine their
knowledge, assumptions, and historical data into
- Roll up / Drill down: Roll-up
your analysis to see the effects on the
enterprise as a whole, or drill down into
specific areas of the business for greater detail
- Instant Web reports: With a few
clicks, Vanguard turns models into interactive
Web reports. Access your models anytime from
anywhere, fully exercise the models in real time,
and distribute your results to everyone who needs
- Open and transparent: Models are
displayed graphically and use plain English
formulas, making them easy to communicate to
colleagues, management, or clients. Anyone can
quickly review assumptions, gain insight into
your results, and provide feedback.
- Reusable model library: You do
not have to re-invent the wheel with each new
planning and analysis effort. Simply search your
model library to find similar or related models
that you can update, link to, or specialize.
- Easy integration: Vanguard
integrates directly with your existing business
systems such as databases, enterprise
applications, and even spreadsheets.
We respect your privacy
and do not share your information.
Vanguard supports all of
the most powerful and essential methods for risk
- Monte Carlo simulation:
Model uncertainty to help manage business
risk and simulate complex systems.
- Decision tree analysis:
Choose the best course of action when
future outcomes are uncertain.
Find the best solution to very complex
problems subject to business constraints.
- Sensitivity analysis:
Determine which assumptions drive your
- Data analysis:
Pull valuable information from
historical or experimental data.