Forecasting & Planning Solutions
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Select the Best Course of Action
The Decision Tree Analysis Add-in gives you the
ability to perform classic decision tree analysis
and Markov simulations.
Decision trees are used to select the best course of
action in cases where you face uncertainty. For example,
decision trees are applied in deciding how much inventory
to build when sales forecasts are uncertain, or when
choosing between litigation and an out-of-court
settlement. In helping you to select the best option,
decision trees provide an elegant framework for combining
all options involved in a decision with consequence
probabilities and outcome values.
Analysis Tools
Once you have modeled a decision using a
decision tree, Vanguard will automatically analyze the
tree to help you better understand and communicate the
risks involved. For example, Vanguard will construct a risk
profile graph or table illustrating all possible
outcomes and probabilities. Vanguard also calculates the
value of knowing what will happen in the future (value
of perfect information). This helps you
determine how much you should spend, on market or other
research, to refine your assumptions. You can even
specify your personal risk aversion when
analyzing decision models.
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"the most attractive,
user- friendly and self-explanatory of any decision tree
software I've seen."
Lon Sobel
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Quick Views
Land Investment Decision
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Litigation Decision
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Risk Profile Graph
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Risk Aversion (Utility)
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Health Cost Markov Simulation
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Markov Simulation Results
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