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Monte Carlo Simulation with Business Analytics Suite™

If you are using Monte Carlo simulation in your modeling efforts, you are among a rare group of individuals who demand sophisticated models. Do your tools reflect the same level of sophistication? The Vanguard System is a modeling and simulation platform designed for professionals like you.

Programming, Excel, or Vanguard

In building Monte Carlo simulation models, you have three basic options:

  1. build your models from scratch using a programming language such as C or Pascal;
  2. use a spreadsheet with a Monte Carlo simulation add-in; or
  3. use Vanguard Business Analytics Suite.

Building your models from scratch allows you to create high-performance models, but the development cost can be prohibitive and the resulting models are difficult to update. Using a spreadsheet makes building models easier, but performance is limited.

Vanguard offers the best of both worlds. It is as easy to use as a spreadsheet, but can handle models hundreds of times as large and run simulations thousands of times as fast. What's more, Vanguard provides a structured modeling environment that makes it possible for many people to collaborate on large modeling efforts. Vanguard's combination of speed, capacity, and accuracy make it unmatched in its ability to handle enterprise-scale models.

Simulation Speed

A single computer running Vanguard can perform a Monte Carlo simulation 10 to 100 times as fast as Excel. This performance is on par with custom programmed models. However, we didn't stop there. Vanguard also supports Grid Computing, which allows you to use a network of computers to perform simulations thousands of times faster than a spreadsheet. Setting up a computer grid is as simple as permissioning Vanguard to use spare CPU cycles on your colleagues computers. This gives each individual in your workgroup supercomputing power without a supercomputing budget.

Model Capacity

Imagine you could link together all of the individual spreadsheet models you have built in the past to create an enterprise model. This would allow you to understand how risks in one project area can be affected by other projects; or, to anticipate problems caused when different projects compete for the same resources. Portfolio modeling requires a level of capacity that is not present in spreadsheets and it requires an architecture that allows you to link together models built by different people using different time frames, different currencies, different units of measure, etc. Vanguard makes this possible through its component-based, collaborative modeling infrastructure.

With Vanguard, the complexity of your models scales linearly with model size. This makes portfolio modeling and optimization possible.

Model Accuracy

A model is useful only if it is free of errors. This becomes increasingly difficult as models grow in size. Vanguard uses hierarchy, object-oriented design principals, and a visual model layout to help you build large-scale models without errors.

Studio's graphical interface makes a model's function easy to understand.

Hyper Speed

Learn how Vanguard's Grid Computing is 1,500 times the speed of spreadsheets.

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Quick Views

Monte Carlo simulation distribution gallery

The distribution gallery makes it easy to assign uncertainty to any number of inputs.

Monte Carlo simulation distribution fitting

The Fit Distribution tool will find the distribution that best fits your historical or experimental data.

Monte Carlo simulation results

Generate Probability Density and Cumulative Distribution graphs to illustrate uncertainty.

Monte Carlo simulation cash projection

Use Time-based projection simulations to illustrate the effects of uncertainty over time.

Monte Carlo simulation rank sensitivity analysis

Use standard correlation-based sensitivity analysis to see which inputs contribute most to overall uncertainty.

Monte Carlo simulation asymmetric sensitivity analysis

Vanguard's exclusive sensitivity analysis outperforms correlation analysis by showing you how uncertainty has different upside and downside impacts.

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