Select the Best Course of Action
Vanguard’s Decision Tree Analysis add-on helps you extract the optimum course of action from business uncertainty using classic decision-tree analysis and Markov simulation.
- How much inventory do we stock or build given uncertain sales forecasts?
- Do we litigate or settle out of court?
In helping determine the best action, decision trees illustrate an elegant framework of all options relevant to your decision, consequence probabilities, and outcome values.
Once you’ve modeled a decision, Vanguard analyzes your tree to help you understand and communicate the risks involved.
- Specify your personal risk aversion when analyzing decision models.
- Generate a risk profile graph or table to illustrate all possible outcomes and probabilities.
- Calculate the value of foresight (value of perfect information) automatically to determine how much to spend on market or other research to refine your assumptions.