Product development in the life sciences industry
is marked by high research & development costs, long lead times,
and low success rates of profitable product launches. With these
challenges, life sciences companies must very carefully decide in
which products to invest and ultimately take to market. This involves
eliciting input from the right people and properly accounting for
risks very early in the planning and analysis phase. In addition to
individual products, the portfolio as a whole must be carefully
planned to balance risk and reward. Without the proper upfront
planning and analysis, even the most attractive opportunities can
quickly become unprofitable cost sinks.
The Vanguard System™ is a comprehensive business solution
for improving the quality, reliability, and speed of management
decisions. It does this by helping you Collaborate
with colleagues on important plans, Analyze
alternatives using state-of-the-art modeling and
simulation techniques, Automate routine
decisions using expert system technology, and Improve
overall management effectiveness by adding structure to
a normally chaotic process.
Business improvement is all about working smarter. Vanguard brings
together the people, analytics, and systems required to help your
business operate intelligently.
Here are just a few of the ways Vanguard supports the life
- Product development: Accurately estimate
lifecycle profitability and forecast adoption across all
- Demand forecasting: Predict demand for final
products and raw materials, even when historical data is
- Mix / Portfolio analysis: Optimize product
portfolios, pricing, and promotions.
- Risk analysis: Vanguard is the first risk
analysis solution that leverages the combined power of your
collective intelligence and our proven analytical methods to give
you complete risk-based visibility and insight into your
- Strategic planning: Vanguard fully quantifies
the financial and operational impacts of strategic decisions at
all levels of the organization.
- Sales and operations planning (S&OP):
Enable real-time collaboration between Marketing &
Sales and Operations to ensure production capacity can profitably
support customer demand (and vice versa).
- Surveys and research: Know your market and
understand your customers' needs, wishes, and opinions using
Novartis Forecasts R&D Pipeline Performance and
Optimizes Vaccine Acquisition Decisions.
To improve its portfolio management process, Novartis
first required better forecasts of how vaccine development
projects might move through its R&D pipeline. Then, using
these pipeline performance forecasts, Novartis sought to
optimize its acquisitions of new vaccines to augment its
existing R&D project portfolio. Finally, Novartis needed
to understand how its portfolio management decisions
translated into financial performance.
Using Vanguard System's Simulation-based Forecasting
features, Novartis accurately models how each of the vaccines
individually progresses through its virtual lifecycle. "We
had been using spreadsheets to model the process, but they
could not handle the complexities of our business. We were
being forced to simplify the models to the point of being
inaccurate," says Dr. Joachim Schwarzkopf. Novartis is now
able to incorporate a wide range of risk and uncertainty
assumptions about each vaccine development project such as
stage/phase durations, costs, likelihoods of advancement, and
the spawning of new projects.
"We are making strategic decisions that
have long-term impacts on our business. Without Vanguard
System, we would not have the visibility and analysis we need
to make the right decisions."
Joachim Schwarzkopf, MBA, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager
Novartis Vaccines & Diagnostics
Download the complete
Novartis case study.
Healthcare Econometrics uses Vanguard to improve product
adoption and marketability forecasts.
Healthcare Econometrics, a division of Applied
Quantitative Sciences, Inc., builds decision support and risk
analysis applications for some of the largest medical device,
pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in the world.
Healthcare Econometrics needed a scalable, enterprise-class
modeling and simulation tool to build the very large-scale
and complex market simulation models that their clients
Vanguard is the tool of choice for Healthcare
Econometrics. They have built a suite of simulation models
for product adoption and marketability forecasts. These
models are cutting-edge and, according to Healthcare
Econometrics, simply could not have been built in any other
modeling and simulation tool on the market.
"The diversity of model requirements
within our client base (scope, scale, complexity,
accessibility, etc.) has fueled our persistent survey and
acquisition of what we consider best-in-class modeling tools.
We have now adopted Vanguard System as
our core tool and strongly recommend it to professional
modelers using anything else."
Michael Kubica, Senior Scientist, Healthcare
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