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Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is the most common measure of forecast error. MAPE functions best when there are no extremes to the data (including zeros).
 

With zeros or near-zeros, MAPE can give a distorted picture of error. The error on a near-zero item can be infinitely high, causing a distortion to the overall error rate when it is averaged in. For forecasts of items that are near or at zero volume, Symmetric Mean Absolute Percent Error (SMAPE) is a better measure.

MAPE is the average absolute percent error for each time period or forecast minus actuals divided by actuals:

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)


Additional forecast error methods include:
Symmetric Mean Absolute Percent Error (SMAPE)
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
Last Absolute Deviation Z-Score
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) - Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
Mean Absolute Deviation Percent (MADP)

 

Forecast Error



 

Forecasting 101 Topics

General Concepts
What is Forecasting?
Demand Management
Demand Forecasting
Business Forecasting
Inventory Planning
Statistical Forecasting
Time Series Forecasting

Forecasting Methods
Forecasting Methods - Models - Techniques
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Regression Analysis - Models
Hybrid Forecasting Methods
Decomposition Forecasting Methods
Spectral Analysis
Custom Forecasting Models

Forecasting Fit
Determining Forecast Fit
Out of Sample Testing / Holdout Sample
Forecast Fit - Residual Analysis
Straight Line Forecast Myth
Forecast Error
    Symmetric Mean Absolute Percent Error (SMAPE)
    Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
    Last Absolute Deviation Z-Score
    Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) - Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
    Mean Absolute Deviation Percent (MADP)

Challenging Forecasts
Spare Parts Forecasting
New Product Forecasting
Using Comparables Forecasting


 

The Vanguard Difference

Vanguard Forecast Server™ automatically calculates MAPE.

Forecast Server™ is available for:

Sales Forecasting
Inventory Optimization
Demand Planning
Financial Planning
Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP)


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